Randomly Analyzed

A mid day, post lunch gaping out of the window thought of what the TN elections have done to the democracy in the state is as fascinating as the day when you thought India would lose to Sri Lanka yet again, but won. I am not political pundit nor are my opinions rational to call this an analysis – but as my blog defines the randomness, I go into such thoughts.

Remember the famous Goundar line from Indian “Cover la Amount vaangardhu than Government”* One of the most insightful and thoughtfully written fact corroborating the protagonist – Senapathy’s claim that in India, Government employees must be paid to carry out the duty – and sometimes in favor of the one who is bribing.

2011 TN elections ironically reverses that cause-effect situation. The Government [Not specifically the employee], the stakeholder  – is willing to bribe the voter to 1. Perform the duty of voting 2. To perform it to their Advantage.

Now it is no surprise on 2 counts as to what the result might be. But, what is appalling is that you just cannot judge what people would do or think and the 2 points contradict each other.

A government – For the people, By the people – means if a Govt Employee [the people] would do their job right after taking a bribe – directly implies the common man who is as much a govt employee probable himself – will deliver. Added to the free stuff they would receive in any case, by the rules of bidding – the highest bidder gets the cake. In this case the DMK must win.

Consider the other angle to this – a tricky one that the DMK might have to hope against and the one ADMK is counting on – is the fact that they show themselves to the people that they Bribe to get something done. Now, an average educated [not the school/MS-MBA/Blog writing types] person would guess one step further thinking if they are prepared to bribe, they wouldn’t mind asking one. Would you want to elect such a government back? The Free stuff comes any way.  Answer would be Vote for ADMK.

Now where does it leave us? Mathematics, particularly any blog writing Engineering student recalls Probability where the coin has to be tossed 729 times to achieve something – and the answer is always 50 50. Trends, pointers and other MBA /statistics metrics points to one or the other which clearly makes the election analysis anything like the Times of India polls which asks “Will India be a developed nation in 2012” with answers “Yes” “No” “Can’t Say” where a good section of people from Bangalore [The Clichéd educated] thinks they are confused and “Can’t say”.

Yes, Providing your analysis even with a sample can be wrong. Gauging the mind of a common man in the Polling booth is as arrogant as a human being defining God. Have you ever understood what you know you will do in the next few days?

The so-called pseudo-Pundits trying to analyze a specific pattern in the randomness of the environment with a near to “acceptable” theory is as complex and inconclusive as this sentence.

Do we need such analysis? Is Random idea your way of thought?

* one who receives an amount in a cover is a government  - an alliteration based comedy on Cover and Government both made to sound like Ka

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